Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1709
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 23:44:24

ACUS11 KWNS 252344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252343=20
SDZ000-260115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 252343Z - 260115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across eastern SD. Large
hail will be possible with the more discrete storms, with severe
winds becoming the main threat with any upscale growing clusters. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely in the next hour or
two.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar data show
convective initiation underway across Sully, Hughes and Hyde
Counties in central SD. These storms are developing amid a very
buoyant airmass, characterized by 90s/70s F surface temperatures and
dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
contributing to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding CINH. Elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature are also contributing to
40+ kts of effective bulk shear, which favors supercell development.
Any supercells that can develop and become sustained should be
accompanied by severe hail and a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out. Low-level shear is not overly strong, so some
multicells/supercells may become outflow dominant or merge,
potentially supporting the development of one or more MCSs later
this evening. Should this occur, an organized severe wind threat may
also materialize. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the
next hour or two.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9cTSHWuspaBZTth7MJqsffEqCxvVl07p1v8CF5oBOvdSfX9z7eprPU5Pepd30g78Yd_gOS-7R=
xZU49Sv6xuIMACo2rM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44179990 44729959 45119904 45179831 45049764 44699676
            44229649 43669662 43279682 43179740 43299846 43709981
            44179990=20


=3D =3D =3D
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