Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1706
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 21:58:23

ACUS11 KWNS 252158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252157=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-252330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into far western
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252157Z - 252330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of North
Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Severe hail and wind are the
main threats. Convective coverage trends are being monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in
convective intensity across ND as a subtle mid-level trough
overspreads the region, with at least one supercell taking shape in
Cavalier County, ND. Though appreciable convective inhibition
remains in place, strong surface heating of a moist low-level
airmass (characterized by near 70 F surface dewpoints) supports
3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis). At the moment, it is
unclear if the upper support across the northern Plains will
compensate for the substantial CINH to support a relatively
widespread severe threat. On the other hand, given the instability,
any storm that can mature and become sustained should support a
severe wind and hail threat. As such, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_aOGGblaP-_YxqOTgLR5uQn8IFyC44vaRfLB3q21aMk_TxKzNsofXCXPMbpvnmjsrP8Kdxsi1=
86IMgKGf0JRmv0DAbM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   45989853 48399840 48999806 49119739 48909647 48519616
            47829605 47139604 46549596 46269604 46129634 45949714
            45989853=20


=3D =3D =3D
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