Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 19:47:53 ACUS01 KWNS 251947 SWODY1 SPC AC 251946 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind/hail-producing thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northern Plains and the Northeast into this evening. Isolated severe gusts are also possible over portions of the Interior West. ....20z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z Update. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to shift east/northeast across WW 546 the next few hours before moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the northern Plains in the next few hours. These storms will shift east/southeast through the evening into early tonight, producing hail and damaging gusts. ...Leitman.. 07/25/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023/ ....Mid Atlantic into southern New England... A remnant MCV is currently over eastern PA. This feature is embedded within a larger-scale shortwave trough and associated 40 knot mid-level jet moving into the northeast states. Forcing ahead of these features is leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Strong heating across the region, coupled with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to moderate CAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through early evening. Storms will eventually build southward into eastern VA/MD as well. ....Northern Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over MT/WY. This feature will emerge into the Plains this afternoon, with large scale ascent overspreading the Dakotas. As this ascent reaches the western edge of deeper/richer moisture over central ND/SD, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop. Initial storms will likely be supercells with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Storms should congeal upscale through the evening as they track east-southeastward into southwest MN/western IA with a continued risk of damaging winds. Other more isolated severe storms may develop southward into parts of NE and northeast CO, with a localized risk of damaging winds and hail. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .