Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1705
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 18:04:52

ACUS11 KWNS 251804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251804=20
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...New Jersey...southeastern New York...Long
Island...Connecticut...western and central Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 251804Z - 252000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to slowly intensify and
organize across northern New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley into
southern New England, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts through 3-5 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually consolidating east of
the mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, across far eastern
Pennsylvania into western New Jersey, with colder cloud tops and
lightning flash rates slowly expanding and increasing, respectively.
Beneath 30 kt southwesterly flow around 500 mb, shear appears
sufficiently strong to support further organization, with at least
moderate easterly near-surface inflow ahead of activity.

Although stronger southwesterly flow farther aloft will tend to
continue advecting anvil cloud cover above the updraft inflow layer,
latest mesoanalysis indicates that the boundary layer has already
become characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg across northern New Jersey
and the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England.  So, there
appears potential for convection to continue intensify and organize
during the next few hours.  As it does, the risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts probably will increase.

...Kerr.. 07/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!56Ntq95aRLKhlmb1JJAa3eXdX7q4HcPNRUcMhz9fW-rcpd8ahKX4-wyFDNA3QUENSOCyy5K7f=
1zHLbxcNloLXOnqjYE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

LAT...LON   42567305 42007195 41137254 40797313 40387378 39647438
            39477462 39527491 40077471 40557454 41237462 41677420
            42567305=20


=3D =3D =3D
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