Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1704
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 14:59:19

ACUS11 KWNS 251459
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251458=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-251700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...much of southeastern Pennsylvania...adjacent
portions of northern Maryland...northern Delaware...New Jersey and
adjacent portions of southeastern New York state

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 251458Z - 251700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe
hail and wind, appear likely to begin to develop by Noon through 2
PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis indicates that destabilization of a
seasonably moist boundary layer is well underway southeast of the
Allegheny Mountains into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas.  This
is occurring in response to daytime heating, beneath relatively cool
mid-level temperatures associated with mid-level troughing slowly
approaching the region.

An embedded cyclonic vorticity center (and associated convective
development) is evident crossing the State College area, and it
appears that this feature will continue to slowly shift
east-northeastward into the vicinity of the Poconos through 18-19Z.=20
While west-southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow is a rather
modest 20-25 kt, 30 kt around 500 mb southeast of the vorticity
center appears to be contributing to modest vertical shear.

As mixed-layer CAPE continues to gradually increase in excess of
1500-2000 J/jg, further weakening of mid-level inhibition with
mid-level forcing for ascent and additional insolation may yield the
initiation of intensifying scattered thunderstorm development as
early as 16-18Z.  Some of these may pose a risk for severe hail and
locally damaging surface gusts into late afternoon.

...Kerr/Hart.. 07/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4v4efwlqO6er93evwI_cE6zJRdQiVKMyLgYtz-XK0Nlc87_DKKMc0rC6_5emf_tdRZziuL6J5=
P17DU1-OJBQOAvToWU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41347565 41257398 40377411 39587531 39297611 39547715
            39957762 40797726 41347565=20


=3D =3D =3D
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