Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 25 2023 06:02:18 ACUS02 KWNS 250602 SWODY2 SPC AC 250600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of tornadoes are the primary forecast hazards. ....Synopsis... A mid-level high will continue to remain centered over NM with its influence extending across the southern U.S. A notable mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from IA to the Lower Great Lakes. An upstream disturbance will move east from southern Alberta to western Ontario. In the low levels, a weak area of surface low pressure over IA will meander east, while a stronger low develops across southern Manitoba. ....Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes... Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in association with warm-air advection and a LLJ over the IA/MO vicinity. It remains unclear how the early day convection will evolve during the morning to peak heating timeframe. Additional storm development is possible both ahead and perhaps on the southern flank of morning convection. Regardless, a moist/destabilizing airmass downstream of this potential convection will feature dewpoints near 70 deg F in Lower MI to the low-mid 70s over IL/IN/OH. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 1500-3500 J/kg with moderate westerly mid-level flow. Some models indicate partial convective augmentation enhancing the flow fields across the southern Great Lakes. If this scenario were to occur, a risk for scattered severe gusts would increase. It is in the vicinity of a model-depicted west to east frontal zone that a supercell risk and greater bowing segment potential would be possible. This corridor is most confidently depicted near the Michigan-OH/IN border but may shift latitudinally as details change. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible along with large hail with the more intense cells. This activity will likely grow upscale as it moves across the southern Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes by late evening. ....Dakotas into the central High Plains... A surface trough will extend south from a surface low over south-central Canada and through the north-central Great Plains. A relatively moist airmass east of the wind shift will feature dewpoints in the 60s with 50s expected in parts of the central High Plains. Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe hail/wind are possible with the stronger storms. This activity will likely dissipate during the evening. ...Smith.. 07/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .