Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 23:26:03

AWUS01 KWNH 242325
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-250424-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0790
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...southern/western Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242324Z - 250424Z

Summary...Deepening convection over south-central Arizona will
migrate westward toward a very moist airmass along the Lower
Colorado River Valley.  A few areas of flash flooding are possible
with this activity.

Discussion...Robust convective development has occurred across
south-central Arizona south of Phoenix over the past couple hours.
 The cells are located on the southwestern periphery of a stout
upper ridge centered over New Mexico, and are in an environment
characterized by 1.5+ inch PW values and 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE.  Slow
westward storm motions were combining with the relatively high PW
values and allowing for efficient, heavy rain-producing cells with
estimated rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times per MRMS.

The storms will continue to drift westward through the afternoon
and early evening while producing locally heavy rainfall that
should exceed FFG thresholds at times (generally around 1-1.5
inch/hr - locally lower).  It is possible that storms reach the
Colorado River and AZ/CA border region over the next 2-4 hours.=20
Models/CAMs suggest a fairly quick dissipation of convective
activity after sunset as nocturnal boundary layer stabilization
occurs.  Flash flooding is possible in this scenario - especially
in low-lying and/or sensitive areas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9ltvXKMUvSATnxkZu0CRUwHlhTUQRNMP53xjNNhACzhFyOvfcGOTX_rNO3LLaT1zI6NY=
9w_1hOt7kpGnU7sJxMsx2yE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35131395 34751254 33361158 32191107 31581116=20
            31421209 32351442 33131486 34831470=20

=3D =3D =3D
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