Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1701
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 22:13:13

ACUS11 KWNS 242213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242212=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-242345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of KY...IN...and OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...

Valid 242212Z - 242345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for
severe hail and damaging winds for a couple more hours this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection that strengthened earlier this afternoon
across the OH Valley along and ahead of a weak front has produced
occasional severe hail and damaging winds over the past couple of
hours. The thermodynamic environment across this region remains
favorable for robust thunderstorms in the short term, with latest
mesoanalysis estimates showing around 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE present.
Recent VWPs from area radars suggest low to mid-level flow remains
fairly modest below about 6 km AGL, with some strengthening of
northwesterly winds around 7-9 km AGL. A mix of multicells and
marginal supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly
severe hail and damaging winds, respectively. This convection is
forecast to slowly spread east-southeastward across parts of KY,
southern/eastern IN, and southern/western OH over the next couple of
hours. A less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the OH
Valley and eventual nocturnal cooling should limit the overall
severe threat farther east later this evening.

...Gleason.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Up0OVNuQtELmDQbwhRiu8reNaQKnNDe9jxM1V9VT0_01bQq5--NGl8XAy35VVd7IerlIUSNP=
LbufbkZ_nZ0hM-g08k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38678706 40068577 40528325 40278228 39778216 38768269
            38098396 37728517 36668570 36668740 37698688 38678706=20


=3D =3D =3D
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