Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1695
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 18:50:13

ACUS11 KWNS 241850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241849=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-242045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...northern Kentucky...Southeastern
Indiana...Southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241849Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk increasing into the afternoon/evening. This
area is being monitored for a watch over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Cell development is ongoing across portions of the Ohio
Valley. Daytime heating and dew points in the upper 60s to 70s has
yielded MLCAPE values around 1000-2500 J/kg. Given the unstable air
mass, a few pulse severe storms may develop ahead of the more
widespread risk late afternoon/early evening. These may pose a risk
of isolated damaging wind and large hail. Forcing remains weak but
an upstream impulse will track across the Ohio Valley this afternoon
leading to an increase in thunderstorm coverage.  As thunderstorm
coverage increases, potential for more a organized damaging wind
threat will also increase. This area is being monitored for a watch
over the next couple of hours.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6zZbJSJETyECcaZkV9VGoMyeDyYiKA50ilEFuHOY6bfspsfPYGc57ZgbzfdwclE09mi0bmrN7=
5DEf8ItGW5nE-WMqvc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39758659 40068611 40318560 40528513 40678476 40798417
            40848337 40648279 40458260 40208242 39888236 39628238
            39198255 38888280 38568304 38198343 37958380 37818419
            37698460 37648489 37658504 37718551 37758580 37848605
            38098635 38168646 38378663 38638676 38828680 39048681
            39208684 39758659=20


=3D =3D =3D
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