Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 17:46:27

AWUS01 KWNH 241732
FFGMPD
MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-242331-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0789
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Upstate New York and Vermont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241731Z - 242331Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will
be capable of producing intense rain rates of 1-2"/hr at times.
Localized totals of 1-3" will be possible in the strongest storms
and this may lead to flash flooding, especially for the more
sensitive and susceptible locations.

Discussion...As of early afternoon, with air temperatures climbing
into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s, surface-based instability
has climbed into the 2000-2500 J/kg range per the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Meanwhile, low level southerly flow ahead of an
approaching shortwave has allowed a narrow axis of slightly higher
moisture to advect northward with the most recent blended TPW
product showing PWs approaching 1.25". With favorable forcing for
ascent across the region and plenty of instability/moisture,
scattered thunderstorms have become more organized and deepened as
well per recent IR imagery.

Expect over the next several hours loosely organized convection to
continue moving east/northeast across interior NY into western
Vermont. The environment supports some intense rain rates between
1-2"/hr at times in the strongest cores and there's enough
coverage of storms for possible repeating rounds. The 12Z HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 1" hourly totals peaks by mid
afternoon at 35-45 percent with some signal for 6-hr QPF exceeding
2" across Upstate NY and western VT.

Relatively progressive storm motions combined with somewhat drier
days recently may limit scope of any flooding. However, while much
of the area in the last 7 days has seen below normal
precipitation, the past 2-3 weeks continue to run much above
normal departures and some areas remain more sensitive/vulnerable
to intense rainfall. A few instances of flash flooding will be
possible through late afternoon for the more urban and other
susceptible locations.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!67HaMlF41bPdOuLR5SDDd5EQTak1m07GRkJxVMq7cdGbCOQr4CKc6bCaiOnyPAesXCRc=
k9isBR5kDOyXxgtuTyxfkX0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44367305 43177282 41647387 42397730 43387603=20
            44277445=20

=3D =3D =3D
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