Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1694
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 15:59:10

ACUS11 KWNS 241559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241558=20
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Pennsylvania...central and
eastern New York...Vermont and western Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241558Z - 241800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, possibly including an organizing cluster,
are expected to continue to gradually intensify with increasing
potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading northeastward
across the region through 2-4 PM EDT.  Trends are being monitored
for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway, as
insolation contributes to steepening lapse rates and weakening
inhibition, beneath a pocket of cool air aloft (at or below -12 to
-14 C around 500 mb) advecting northeastward to the lee of the lower
Great Lakes.  This includes a clustering of storms now spreading to
the north of the Pocono Mountains, near the exit region of a
northeastward propagating mid-level jet streak (30-35 kt around 500
mb).=20

With continued boundary-layer heating ahead of this activity across
eastern New York into adjacent portions of western New England,
further upscale convective growth appears possible.  As mixed-layer
CAPE steadily increases in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of
modest vertical shear, convection may gradually organize with a
strengthening cold pool becoming accompanied by increasing risk for
damaging wind gusts.

...Kerr/Hart.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8IPERJZ5V6xAKenN2rwqpwEy8McUq95gsijvgjVmjabahwJiq8YfLr40yJpGFSyP45aM8wW2K=
T1DxzhOO70J1mroGyY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   44897439 44767250 42897257 41247588 41097748 43157679
            43907637 44897439=20


=3D =3D =3D
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