Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1692
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 10:08:38

ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central IA...Northwest MO...Far
Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241007Z - 241130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts may extend into southwest/south-central IA, northwest
MO and far northeast KS. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across far eastern NE
and far western IA has shown a trend toward more southeastward
progression over the last hour or so. Current storm motion takes the
cluster to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542 by 11Z. This
cluster is moving within the buoyancy gradient, with mesoanalysis
estimating about 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE where the storms are ongoing
across far eastern NE and less than 500 J/kg farther east into
central IA. This should limit the eastern extent of the severe
threat, but enough buoyancy could still be in place across southwest
IA to support strong updrafts capable of hail. Main uncertainty is
just how far east in southwest/south-central IA storms are able to
maintain intensity. Moderate buoyancy is already in place across
northwest MO and far northeast KS, with higher confidence that the
severe threat will extend into that region after 11Z. Convective
trends will be monitored closely and an additional watch may be
needed if trends suggest the threat will extend into a substantive
portion of southwest/south-central IA.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!47b2a7XZZ_1ezCGWSpLMghYHDlDhM4YPCDQo21xa7A418WGGlSDkzJwowZ7lChoGXyMPRFbuU=
IliCJjWWi_hPEU3u_A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41119550 41619492 41509411 41049370 40239354 39699441
            39919566 41119550=20


=3D =3D =3D
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