Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1691
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 09:15:11

ACUS11 KWNS 240915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240914=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-241045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast SD...Eastern NE...Far Western IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542...

Valid 240914Z - 241045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail continues across far eastern NE,
with a gradual shift into far western IA over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...An arc of thunderstorms which developed amid warm-air
advection about 2 hours ago continues from far southeast SD through
eastern NE. Hail-producing supercells developed within this region,
with a  few still ongoing. Overall environmental conditions remain
characterized by moderate buoyancy, with MUCAPE around 2000-2500
J/kg, and strong deep-layer vertical shear, with effective bulk
shear around 60 kt. Moderate low-level flow, and associated warm-air
advection, is expected persist for the next few hours. This
combination of ascent and buoyancy/shear will help maintain the
ongoing storms as they drift eastward, bringing the severe
thunderstorm risk into far western IA. Although overall storm
intensity may be slightly less than earlier, due to more storm
coverage and resultant storm interactions, large hail will remain
possible.

...Mosier.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9-HEHOK6Fmbszm9lXVtcR06E1OsK1lgCM6_80AxAuUMs65e-Wv2lmg-zrf0dMrmTkNgiIBp6T=
LY2tdlr88OsISYodxE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42319773 43009778 43299696 41839552 40469509 40129635
            40979698 41789742 42319773=20


=3D =3D =3D
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