Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 07:31:09 ACUS03 KWNS 240731 SWODY3 SPC AC 240730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. ....Synopsis... A mid-level high will continue to remain centered over NM with its influence extending across the southern U.S. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the mid-upper MS Valley east-southeast through much of the southern Great Lakes during the period. In the low levels, a weak area of surface low pressure over IA will meander east, while a stronger low develops across southern Manitoba. ....Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes... A cluster of showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning in association with weak warm-air advection and a LLJ over the IA/MO vicinity. A moist/destabilizing airmass downstream of this potential convection will feature dewpoints near 70 deg F in southern Lower MI to the low-mid 70s over IL/IN. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 2500-4500 J/kg with moderate westerly mid-level flow. A continuation of the early day activity or new developing activity on the leading edge of the outflow will have a tendency to grow upscale during the afternoon. Large hail will be possible with more cellular activity but severe gusts appear to be the more widespread risk. Some severe risk may linger well into the evening as the thunderstorm cluster pushes east across the southern Great Lakes. ....WY... Strong heating on the northern periphery of the mid-level anticyclone will yield very steep surface to 400-mb lapse rates by early-mid afternoon. Appreciable low to mid-level moisture and heating will probably result in widely scattered thunderstorms from northeast UT, northern CO, and to the southern 2/3rds of WY. Dry sub-cloud layers and evaporative cooling may result in isolated microbursts capable of gusty winds. Will consider low-severe probabilities if model run-to-run consistency is maintained into the Day-2 outlook timeframe. ...Smith.. 07/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .