Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1690
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 06:29:10

ACUS11 KWNS 240629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240628=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast/East-Central NE...Far
Western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240628Z - 240900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop from southeast SD
into northeast/east-central NE and adjacent far western IA
overnight. Severe-storm coverage is uncertain, but large hail is
possible and a watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a relatively small corridor
of 25-30 kt 850-mb winds from central NE into south-central SD,
contributing to broad warm-air advection across central and eastern
SD. Current IR satellite imagery shows increasingly deep cloud cover
within this region of warm-air advection across in the ONL and MHE
vicinity. This modest low-level flow and associated warm-air
advection is expected to persist throughout the night, likely
pushing parcels to their LFC and supporting thunderstorm
development.

RAP forecast sounding from the same region show steep mid-level
lapse rates and 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, as well as long
hodographs and strong deep-layer shear. These environmental
conditions support the potential for a few supercells capable of
large hail. Isolated very large hail with diameter greater than 2"
is not out of the question. Overall storm coverage is uncertain, but
convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_GvyOQeNFLqxaAZ2xkt01VMWtdSHBK4UtLp-K-mlRsXomzvPuH6duEIxQkxYRySTrTWR4_XB2=
e8LPbyMLqRjgWUqxaI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   42509837 44389894 44859777 43389645 41559551 41059698
            42509837=20


=3D =3D =3D
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