Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 05:59:40 ACUS02 KWNS 240559 SWODY2 SPC AC 240557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Nebraska into the Dakotas late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. ....Synopsis... A mid-level high will remain centered over NM, with a ridge over the northern Great Plains flattening as a weak disturbance crests the ridge over the Dakotas during the day. In the East, a weak and broad mid-level trough will gradually shift eastward to the Eastern Seaboard. In the low levels, a rather nondescript pattern will feature weak low pressure over the northern Great Plains with a frontal zone becoming draped northwest to southeast from the Dakotas into IA. ....Dakotas into NE... Southerly low-level flow over eastern NE into the eastern Dakotas will contribute to a moistening boundary layer beneath an initially strong cap through midday. Very strong heating and weak convergence near a north-south oriented surface trough will combine to erode CINH and focus potential thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon. Models show 3000 J/kg MLCAPE over central NE into central SD with weaker buoyancy farther north near the Canadian border. Model hodographs show a wind profile supporting organized storms, including supercells. At least isolated storms are forecast from ND/northern MN southward into southwest NE/northeast CO, with storm coverage greatest over central/eastern SD during the early evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with this activity. ....Chesapeake Bay... The favorable timing of a broad/weak disturbance into the region during peak heating will probably lead to scattered thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon. Strong heating amidst a moist boundary layer and around 20 kt effective shear will favor isolated strong to locally damaging storms. Localized pockets of 45-60 mph gusts are possible with the stronger cores. This activity will likely diminish by the early-mid evening. ...Smith.. 07/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .