Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1689
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 02:41:38

ACUS11 KWNS 240241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240241=20
AZZ000-240345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 240241Z - 240345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or two may accompany the stronger cells
embedded within a multicell complex. The severe threat will be
sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular complex of storms has steadily grown in
size and intensity over the past couple of hours while propagating
off of the higher terrain, toward a hot, well-mixed boundary layer.
Surface temperatures over 100 F amid low 50s F dewpoints are
contributing to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, with boundary-layer lapse rates
exceeding 9 C/km (per latest mesoanalysis). As such, efficient
evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport may support a
severe gust or two this evening. Given the isolated nature of the
severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri.. 07/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6f8Ts6RgFtHTnFJx7D5nZTWlgEE0JZ1D1GAEuYOo7B4yuAQS7m_wDqC7pzyiA1omeJu5ieezn=
mlswbsQCp_mIgtLfm0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31881302 32271294 32471251 32571184 32511123 32281068
            31921051 31621081 31511117 31491165 31881302=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.