Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 00:43:39 ACUS01 KWNS 240043 SWODY1 SPC AC 240042 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong gusty winds will be possible this evening into tonight in the central and northern Plains, and in the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Carolinas and Arizona. ....Central and Northern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone over the western U.S., with northwest mid-level flow located over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located over the Great Plains extending eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within this airmass. RAP analysis has the strongest instability from central Kansas northward into central South Dakota, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will support marginally severe storms this evening. Strong gusty winds and hail will be the primary threats. The threat this evening should be associated with just a few isolated storms. Later tonight, a low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across the Great Plains. Within the exit region of this jet, convective initiation is expected in far southeast South Dakota between 06Z and 08Z. This convection will move south-southeastward across eastern Nebraska late tonight. Forecast sounding along the track of this convection have MUCAPE near 3500 J/kg, effective shear of 55-60 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large hail. The storms will remain elevated which should limit the wind-damage potential. ....Carolinas... An upper-level trough is currently located in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is present across much of the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints (in the lower 70s F) are maximized in eastern North Carolina. This is contributing to moderate instability, with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this airmass. Regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that 0-6 km shear is generally between 25 and 35 knots. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the more intense multicells, for a couple more hours this evening. ....Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone is located across the western U.S. At the surface, a somewhat most airmass is located across southern and central Arizona, where dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. Thunderstorms have developed across southeast Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim this evening. As convective coverage increases and cells move across southern and central Arizona this evening, a marginal wind-damage threat is expected to continue. This will be mainly due to the very steep low to mid-level lapse rates in place, which will help to enhance downdraft wind speeds. ...Broyles.. 07/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .