Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 24 2023 00:22:12

AWUS01 KWNH 240022
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240420-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0788
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...northwestern Arizona, southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240020Z - 240420Z

Summary...An organizing linear complex is propagating toward
slightly more moisture/instability along the Lower Colorado River
Valley.  Heavier rainfall rates should materialize, possibly
resulting in isolated/spotty flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms that initially formed along the
Mogollon Rim and vicinity have grown upscale into a couple of
forward propagating linear segments recently from south of SGU to
near PRC.  These storms are being influenced by southeasterly flow
aloft, encouraging slow westward storm motions toward the Lower
Colorado River.  As these storms propagate westward, they will
encounter a gradually more moist airmass associated with an axis
of moisture/instability characterized by 1-1.3 inch PW values and
1000 J/kg SBCAPE.  This will allow for an increase in locally
heavy rainfall rates that could reach 1 inch/hr at times and
exceed local FFG thresholds.  The overall scenario should result
in a slightly increased, yet localized flahs flood threat in the
short term as storm migrate westward.

Models/CAMs suggest that storms should persist for another 3-4
hours while moving westward.  Eventually, the onset of boundary
layer cooling after sunset should allow for a decrease in updraft
strength and associated rainfall rates.  The flash flood risk
should persist through around 04Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4kTUqr9ilwSIqa_JT_2BDcoPZZ1ou8iO2DAYbD7JGtpCqwfLYb28_1fN4ORLrrct8GxA=
7WhzX7zPZVTkbyCoLcUTbds$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37671462 37071337 35641219 34471168 33671228=20
            34181340 36391570 37431558=20

=3D =3D =3D
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