Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 23 2023 20:02:05 ACUS01 KWNS 232002 SWODY1 SPC AC 232000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN SC AND WESTERN NC... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will remain possible late this afternoon and evening, at least on an isolated basis, across the Southeast States as well as the northern/central Plains and Ozarks. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in Arizona. ....20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include more of southwest SD and western NE, based on latest short-term guidance, destabilization trends, and increasing cumulus near the Black Hills. The Marginal Risk has been trimmed in the wake of earlier convection across parts of FL and GA. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more details. ...Dean.. 07/23/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023/ ....Carolinas... Mostly sunny skies are present today from much of GA across the Carolinas. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, along with rather strong mid/upper level winds. 12z CAM solutions show a more robust signal for higher thunderstorm coverage across parts of northern SC into central NC. Therefore have opted to add a SLGT risk for parts of SC/NC for this afternoon and evening. ....FL... A large but relatively disorganized MCS is moving across the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern FL. Strong heating ahead of this system will lead to occasional intense storms along the leading edge of the combined outflow. Forecast soundings show rather limited deep-layer shear and lapse rates, suggesting that activity will not be very organized or long-lived. However, locally gusty/damaging winds could occur. ....Central/Northern Plains... A large area of moderate/strong instability and fast northwest flow aloft lies across much of the northern and central Plains today. Forecast soundings across the region from the eastern Dakotas into KS/MO show sufficient CAPE/shear for a conditional risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, forcing is weak and confidence in where afternoon convective initiation will occur is low. Therefore will maintain a broad MRGL risk. The strongest signal in 12z models appears to extend from south-central NE across central/eastern KS into west-central MO. This and other corridors will be monitored through the afternoon for a potential upgrade. ....AZ... Easterly flow aloft today will again pose some risk of convection moving off the higher terrain of eastern/northern AZ into higher population areas. Damaging winds would be the main concern. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .