Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1685
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 23 2023 16:29:06

ACUS11 KWNS 231628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231628=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-231830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of South Carolina into western/southern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231628Z - 231830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity the next
couple of hours. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
locally strong/damaging gusts and small hail are possible. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid
70s F has contributed to moderate destabilization early this
afternoon. As destabilization is occurring, a broad, deepening
cumulus field is evident across the region in latest visible
satellite imagery, and an isolated thunderstorm has developed near
KCLT. A band of stronger mid/upper westerlies extends across the
Carolinas, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
aid in organized, transient supercells and thunderstorm clusters.
While midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, forecast hodographs
are quite elongated and suggest at least small hail may be possible
with stronger cells. Otherwise, sufficiently strong deep-layer flow
combined with steep low-level lapse rates and a very moist airmass
will support isolated strong/severe gusts this afternoon. Trends are
being monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch could become
necessary sometime this afternoon prior to 19z-20z.

...Leitman/Hart.. 07/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8HUUNAez0q11GuIwAhiLI0mvrlRTOVdO-YKBuaYrzUvLDkzOweQMJZ0zVOZtgs-FBaV_eN0mJ=
KM_BkaukfgQkchw1hg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   36048044 35918013 35677966 35297939 35017936 34627948
            34157983 34058013 34388245 34748291 35118310 35438300
            35698276 35958244 36158179 36138136 36048044=20


=3D =3D =3D
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