Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 23 2023 12:51:41

AWUS01 KWNH 231251
FFGMPD
FLZ000-231820-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0787
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
851 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231250Z - 231820Z

Summary...Localized 3-4" rainfall totals along the Florida
Panhandle coast this morning may result in flash flooding. Hourly
totals up to 2" will be possible.

Discussion...The combination of a very moist airmass,
characterized by precipitable water values nearing 2.3" per the
latest SPC mesoanalysis, and sufficient surface-based instability
(upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg) is producing efficient and intense
rain rates along the Florida Panhandle coast this morning. Aloft,
a subtle shortwave trough was noted moving through the flow,
rounding the base of the longwave troughing over the eastern U.S.
In the low levels, southwesterly flow on the order of 15-25 kts
(850 mb) is transporting the copious amounts of moisture,
impinging on a stalled surface boundary draped just to the north.
Finally, mean flow nearly parallel to the storm motions is helping
to produce repeating/training rounds of convection.

Recent radar imagery and MRMS QPE shows the strongest cores of the
convection producing near 2" hourly totals right along the coast.
The expectation is that the current convection will continue to
slide further inland and gradually eastward over the next several
hours as the best moisture transport axis shifts eastward. Based
on the 06Z HREF probabilities and most recent runs of the HRRR,
additional localized 3-4" totals will be possible, particularly
along the coast where the greatest instability is found. Hourly
rainfall amounts may approach 2" in spots and this intensity may
be enough to result in a few instances of flash flooding for the
more susceptible spots and urban locations.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6hclxmZfSvjUy5zJnRclmnJcnpNoNOZuv3j0BWaEobma6XLZzNAQKu1GAjCHY0pkPfBD=
_0ZAF9GPpeCFvekiNXN3b0k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30468428 30298368 30168336 29768302 29588331=20
            29708441 29498494 29768572 30138578 30378562=20
            30288479=20

=3D =3D =3D
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