Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 23 2023 07:31:33

ACUS03 KWNS 230731
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern Great
Plains on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level high will remain centered over NM with a ridge over the
northern Great Plains flattening as a possible weak disturbance
crests the ridge.  In the East, a weak and broad mid-level trough
will gradually shift eastward to the Eastern Seaboard during the
period.  In the low levels, a rather nondescript pattern will
feature weak low pressure over the northern Great PLains with a
possible frontal zone becoming draped northwest to southeast from
the Dakotas into IA.

....Northern Great Plains...
Models vary considerably during the Day-3 period for thunderstorm
potential across this region.  The latest EC seems to have some
general agreement with the Canadian, UKMET, and GFS versus the NAM
in showing the surface pattern.  A seasonably moist boundary layer
beneath a capping inversion is forecast to become strongly unstable
by peak heating across this region.  A weak disturbance is progged
to aid in storm development during the afternoon/evening.  Widely
spaced thunderstorms are forecast given the capping/forcing setup,
but a hail/wind risk may accompany the stronger storms.

Elsewhere, large model variability exists across the OH Valley/Great
Lakes particularly regarding destabilization within a weakly forced
regime.  Some stronger storm potential could develop within the OH
Valley/Great Lakes and perhaps into portions of New England, but
confidence is low at this time.

...Smith.. 07/23/2023

$$

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