Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1681
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 21:56:59

ACUS11 KWNS 222156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222156=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Texas...central and
southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540...

Valid 222156Z - 222330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 540. Damaging gusts remain the primary threat, though an
instance or two of large hail cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters have organized roughly into two
west-east oriented bands of storms over the past couple of hours,
with a history of a couple of strong, damaging gusts. MRMS mosaic
radar imagery suggest that the cores of the stronger storms are
quite deep, with 30 dBZ echoes extending to 60 kft in spots, with 50
dBZ echoes reaching over 35 kft. Though deep-layer shear remains
modest, 21Z mesoanalysis depicts over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE residing
ahead of these deep cores (driven mainly by rich low-level moisture
beneath 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates per latest RAP forecast
soundings). Furthermore, the RAP forecast soundings show PWATS well
over 2 inches given the rich moisture. As such, water-loading within
these deep storm cores may promote additional damaging gusts (some
potentially exceeding severe limits), and even an instance or two of
large hail cannot be completely ruled out. The severe threat should
persist through the remainder of the diurnal heating cycle, or when
storms overturn all of the  boundary layer over land, which ever
comes first.

...Squitieri.. 07/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Iy3OK3OkMFw9krX_fITzyC7dYF87qcgwg8_ciivC4PKnPuuDMRLDWjSe9r9JYBPkA4PKU8fI=
v1CX26xJRy5nX-VaqI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31699438 31959182 31989098 31518986 30778923 30308926
            29468969 29219049 29329176 29559259 29879362 31699438=20


=3D =3D =3D
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