Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1679
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 20:36:59

ACUS11 KWNS 222036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222036=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...western Wisconsin and Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222036Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail may continue
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm activity across Minnesota and
Wisconsin have produced scattered reports of 0.50"-1.25" hail, along
with one report of 2.5 inch hail near Marcell, MN. Convection is
further aided by a mid-level impulse digging southward across
Minnesota at this time. RAP sounding analysis indicates largely
straight hodographs with steep low-level lapse rates and unstable
conditions through the profile.  MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg overlaps
deep layer shear around 30-35 kts. Discrete convection has been able
to produce larger hail within this environment. Forcing for ascent
remains somewhat weak, though moisture convergence is evident from
surface objective analysis and surface observations.  Uncertainty if
discrete storm mode will continue and duration/coverage of the large
hail threat. Instances of sub-severe hail and hail up to 1-1.5 will
be possible. Trends will continue to be monitored but a watch is
unlikely to be issued at this time.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9qxUfhJEsB8x-HpKSJNzXV6o-KtCH2rlaliy0gfufqrWzF_b5xHaRhwI0wvQe2K0PeRHvsNy-=
eWt-BwJdyFWp-pinS4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...

LAT...LON   44379096 44239102 43899172 43809258 43729337 43719403
            43779495 43829552 43829606 44099621 44419633 45019605
            46239555 46859556 47359558 48109504 48059356 47749298
            47109277 46479275 46169227 46009175 45689092 45299056
            44379096=20


=3D =3D =3D
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