Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 19:58:00

ACUS01 KWNS 221957
SWODY1
SPC AC 221956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
winds remain possible into this evening across parts of the central
Plains. Storms capable of isolated damaging gusts may persist into
this evening across parts of the Southeast, and develop by early
evening over parts of Arizona.

....20Z Update...
The Slight Risk has been trimmed slightly across parts of AL/GA, in
the immediate wake of storms sagging southward toward the Gulf
Coast. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across parts of northern
MN, southwest MN into southeast SD, and north-central NE, where
developing cumulus and storm initiation has been recently observed
within a somewhat favorable (but weakly forced) environment, with
hail and localized damaging gusts the primary threats. A small part
of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across far northeast
MN/northwest WI, where substantial redevelopment appears likely in
the wake of earlier convection.

Otherwise, no major changes have been made. Storms capable of
locally damaging winds will remain possible through the afternoon
across parts of the Southeast, and may develop by early this evening
across parts of Arizona. Storms capable of hail and localized severe
gusts may increase in coverage late this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central Plains, with a more isolated threat into
the upper Midwest.

See the previous discussion below for more information. See MCD 1677
for more information regarding the threat across parts of the
central Plains.

...Dean.. 07/22/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/

....KS Vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of KS,
where strong heating will combine with dewpoints in the mid 60s to
yield afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg.  Large scale forcing is
subtle in this region, with weak mid-level height rises and diffuse
surface boundaries expected to influence storm potential.
Nevertheless, most 12z CAM solutions continue to show potential for
widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon.  Deep northwest
flow aloft will provide sufficient vertical shear for rotating
updrafts capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

....Gulf Coast Region...
A weak surface boundary extends from southern MS eastward into
southern GA today.  The air mass along and south of the boundary is
very moist and unstable.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
affect this region through the afternoon.  The southern fringe of
stronger mid-level westerlies lies along the boundary, and will
likely result in at least isolated instances of damaging wind gusts.
Please refer to MCD #1675 for further details.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.