Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1677
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 18:58:00

ACUS11 KWNS 221857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221857=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...Western/Central Kansas...southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221857Z - 222100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail and damaging winds possible
this afternoon. Area is being monitored for watch potential.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating across central Kansas into southern
Nebraska has warmed temperatures into the upper 80s to 90s helping
to aid in reducing convective inhibition. This is evident in the
development of a few disorganized cells along with cumulus deepening
on satellite. Dew points are in the mid to upper 60s with some
mixing occurring across portions of central Kansas. MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg is noted in surface objective analysis extending
across southern Nebraska into central Kansas. Enhanced flow around
the periphery of the western ridge is supporting deep layer shear
around 30-40 kts (higher with western extent) into portions of
central/western Kansas and Nebraska. Two distinct areas of
development are ongoing southeast of North Platte, NE and further
south in Kansas northwest of Topeka, KS. Further development is
expected through the afternoon with some uncertainty on coverage. A
weak mid-level impulse moving southward from the Dakotas maid
further aid development by late afternoon/early evening. The
background environment will be supportive of supercells and
multi-cell clusters with potential for large hail (some up to 2 in)
and damaging winds. This area is being monitored for watch
potential.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9G6dOrodJ1PBy5KMD5XY0cXhxIVm09ci6ERgWakuO7QHxItqB_aD4Af00_a_Hpo417jsT-Tz2=
9XbSs0hiPi6HQH_q98$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39790137 40440061 40680018 40799963 40969879 40959817
            40889721 40749659 40449615 40049573 39539564 39109587
            38929612 38779651 38609699 38339755 38119811 37739892
            37599933 37180025 37220130 37490179 37800195 38020200
            39790137=20


=3D =3D =3D
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