Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1676
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 18:06:26

ACUS11 KWNS 221806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221806=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA into far southern
MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221806Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
over the next 1-2 hours. Locally strong gusts will be possible
through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s
F have contributed to MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg across the region
this afternoon. Thunderstorms are increasing to the southwest of a
severe warned cluster over southern MS along a southward-sagging
surface front. Visible satellite imagery has shown
increasing/deepening cumulus near the surface boundary over the past
couple of hours, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
in the next 1-2 hours. Vertical shear is weaker compared to further
east across WW 539. However, given moderate/strong instability, high
PW values (near 2 inches), and steep low-level lapse rates near 8
C/km, sporadic wet microbursts are possible. If sufficient
clustering/outflow consolidation occurs, damaging wind potential
could increase with any forward-propagating clusters that develop.
Convective trends will be monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch
could be issued at some point this afternoon if organized clusters
develop.

...Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5F3t846gptdh-5sjZ5ce8e9_Ad4bUa65UkII8m0uiT3-smBQ9PHSAlHlb3d3J0YTepxqnRyBQ=
QetJTjlikhC-tdFfng$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31259333 31419088 31298968 30818945 30378951 29998958
            29888993 29789039 29809131 30039246 30849349 30879345
            31259333=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.