Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 17:29:55 ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind will be possible across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday. Thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are also possible mainly Sunday evening over portions of Arizona. ....Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region is forecast to build into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains on Sunday, as an upper trough over the eastern CONUS gradually weakens and shifts eastward. At the surface, a weakening cold front will likely be draped somewhere from south-central TX northeastward into southern parts of LA/MS/AL, central/southern GA, and the eastern Carolinas. A weak surface low may develop over the northern High Plains and move southeastward along a surface trough. ....Parts of Georgia and the Carolinas... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the Southeast. The most favorable overlap of instability, stronger flow aloft, and storm coverage is expected from parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, immediately in advance of the main upper trough. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear sufficient for a few modestly organized cells/clusters capable of localized damaging gusts and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Isolated strong storms may also develop farther west near the southern Appalachians, within a drier but modestly unstable regime. Coverage of the severe threat appears too low for probabilities at this time, but some threat for isolated damaging gusts could evolve in this area as well. ....Arizona... Very strong heating and increasing PW will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon near the Mogollon Rim, and potentially into the lower deserts across AZ. Isolated microbursts will be possible with the initial development. 15-20 kt of easterly midlevel flow along the southern periphery of the ridge may support a few outflow-driven, westward-moving clusters capable of at least localized severe gusts into Sunday evening. Some threat could reach as far as the lower CO River Valley before weakening. ....Central/northern Plains into the Midwest... A broad portion of the central/northern Plains and Midwest will reside in a regime characterized by northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, modest low-level moisture, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and generally weak large-scale ascent. Very isolated storm development will be possible within this regime, with sufficient instability and deep-layer to support a conditional supercell risk. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this area, if confidence increases in the location and coverage of potential development. ...Dean.. 07/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .