Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 16:20:29

ACUS01 KWNS 221620
SWODY1
SPC AC 221618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are expected later today into this evening across the central
Plains to Upper Midwest, while other severe storms will be possible
across the Southeast States and southern Arizona.

....KS Vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of KS,
where strong heating will combine with dewpoints in the mid 60s to
yield afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg.  Large scale forcing is
subtle in this region, with weak mid-level height rises and diffuse
surface boundaries expected to influence storm potential.
Nevertheless, most 12z CAM solutions continue to show potential for
widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon.  Deep northwest
flow aloft will provide sufficient vertical shear for rotating
updrafts capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

....Gulf Coast Region...
A weak surface boundary extends from southern MS eastward into
southern GA today.  The air mass along and south of the boundary is
very moist and unstable.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
affect this region through the afternoon.  The southern fringe of
stronger mid-level westerlies lies along the boundary, and will
likely result in at least isolated instances of damaging wind gusts.
Please refer to MCD #1675 for further details.

...Hart/Thornton.. 07/22/2023

$$

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