Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1675
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 16:01:26

ACUS11 KWNS 221601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221600=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221600Z - 221800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage/intensity is expected to increase
over the next 1-2 hours. Strong gusts are possible with this
activity. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating along/ahead of a quasi-stationary front
and composite outflow boundary, stretching from far southern MS
eastward to southwest GA, has allowed development of MLCAPE to
2500-3500 J/kg. Towering cumulus along the surface boundary, as well
as deepening cumulus into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, has
increased over the past 30-60 minutes as boundary layer inhibition
has eroded. Bands/clusters of thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. This
activity will remain on the southern fringes of stronger midlevel
flow, but effective shear values around 25 kt will allow for some
organization. If enough cold pool generation occurs within this very
moist/unstable and modestly sheared environment, damaging wind
potential could increase with any south/southeast propagating
clusters. While the need for a severe thunderstorm watch does not
appear imminent, trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance sometime this afternoon.

...Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6JaAJXnKs2hu9Hge9bjW7_8uM3HoZLeUB-EeCdw6zRhUuJFL4AqGIXcvoJbCCljOtqz17t9mu=
NNU1_TQA7oyQkUy-Sk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30248769 30428907 30898944 31288935 31568903 31828609
            32008388 31998366 31868336 31528295 31208274 30878273
            30588296 30348345 30148446 30248769=20


=3D =3D =3D
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