Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 07:16:24

ACUS03 KWNS 220716
SWODY3
SPC AC 220715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday in the mid to
upper Mississippi River Valley.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over NM on Monday while a
broad, weak trough resides over the East.  A potent mid-level
shortwave trough will move east into the Pacific Northwest and
southern British Columbia during the Day 3 period.  Monsoonal
thunderstorms will develop across the Desert Southwest and Great
Basin.  Some of the thunderstorms over the Interior West will pose a
risk for gusty winds.

....Southern MN into IA and adjacent portions of WI/IL...
A northwest-flow regime is forecast for the mid to upper MS River
Valley on Monday.  Models hint at showing a weak disturbance moving
southeast through the region on Monday.  Located on the northeastern
periphery of warmer 700-mb temperatures (10-12 deg C) and a strong
capping inversion, steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing
low-level moisture (partially evapotranspiration contributed) will
combine to yield a conditionally unstable airmass during the day.
Models indicate an isolated risk for thunderstorms to develop within
a weak warm advection zone centered over IA.  Veering an
strengthening flow with height will favor storm organization.  Large
hail and severe gusts may occur if a small cluster of storms can
develop and become sustained.

...Smith.. 07/22/2023

$$

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