Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 01:44:38

AWUS01 KWNH 220144
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-220630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0784
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Adj Western TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220145Z - 220630Z

SUMMARY...A few widely scattered incidents of flash flooding
remain possible over central to northeastern NM with stronger
cells expanding to small clusters with possible upstream
redevelopment.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR has seen a recent uptick in
convective development/cooling cloud tops to -65C and below as
low-level wind flow has increased from 5-10kts to 15-25kts per VWP
at FDX.  This is in response to strengthening surface high over
northeast NM and low level jet decoupling response at nightfall.=20
Solid low level moisture is feeding these cells but overall depth
is a bit less than prior evening's further north, and so
convection has remained a bit more scattered.  Proximity to the
right entrance of the 50kt 300mb jet continues to provide solid
evacuation aloft especially for northeast to east-central NM over
the next 4-6hrs as the jet axis slides south.  As such, stronger
updrafts can still support 1.5"/hr rates moving across areas of
the upper Pecos River Valley that have been running a bit above
average in precip anomalies per AHPS suggesting axis of lower FFG
values about 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2"/3hr are still approachable and
may result is widely scattered smaller scale incidents of flash
flooding as the cells expand to clusters.

Additionally, return flow through the leading line back toward the
southern Sangre de Cristo as well as E Manzano Ranges will support
solid moisture flux convergence for additional upstream
thunderstorms to develop.  With stronger east or southeasterly
flow, propagation off the terrain is possible (esp, further north
nearer stronger 700-500mb flow) and may allow for spots of
repeating overnight.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_uxxxF7C1IBtISMtRwfbQpCnLxoF9GLoSvXkSA7Z-txh2Sv-lnEhKM2wxH5nTkS0dh6n=
Rmf7pCtNnHzA9gUs95fLe2g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36830477 36600365 35860297 34890278 34180315=20
            33860389 33890525 34150641 35010660 35410565=20
            36590540=20

=3D =3D =3D
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