Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 00:55:24 ACUS01 KWNS 220055 SWODY1 SPC AC 220053 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the Southeast. Additional severe storms remain possible this evening in western New England, and in the southern and central High Plains. ....Southeast... The latest water vapor imagery has west-northwesterly mid-level flow over the Southeast, with a series of subtle shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing ahead of one of these features from northern Alabama into northern Georgia. These storms are located to the northeast of an instability max, where the RAP has MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg. The storms will continue to move east-southeastward along a gradient of instability, approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard later this evening. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in the vicinity of this large cluster of storms are mostly unidirectional from the west, with 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support a wind-damage threat this evening. The greatest wind-damage potential will be associated with the faster-moving short multicell line segments. Hail could also occur with the more intense cells. The severe threat will gradually become more isolated, but may persist into the mid to late evening, especially in areas with moderate instability. ....Southern and Central High Plains... A subtle shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly mid-level flow, is evident on water-vapor imagery over northeast New Mexico. A cluster of strong to severe storms is located near the shortwave trough. Surface winds ahead of this cluster are backed to the east with dewpoints across northeast New Mexico near 60 F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate instability with MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg according to the RAP. The instability, along with lift associated with the shortwave trough, will provide support for continued thunderstorm development this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Cannon Air Force Base in northeast New Mexico have directional shear in the low levels with 30 to 35 knots of northwest flow in the mid-levels. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, will continue to support an isolated severe threat this evening. Some cells could rotate and be associated with isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be possible. ....Northeast... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are currently moving through the Northeast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70 F are contributing to a moderately unstable airmass. MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of western New England. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP near New York has a substantial increase in wind speeds in the mid-levels, which is resulting in 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This should support an isolated severe threat this evening. Hail and marginally severe winds will be the primary threats. However, the severe threat has become more isolated over the last hour, and this trend should continue as instability decreases across western New England early this evening. ...Broyles.. 07/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .