Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1672
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 22 2023 00:05:53

ACUS11 KWNS 220005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220005=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-220130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Southern Alabama dns southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220005Z - 220130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected across southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia over the next few hours. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed south of watch 538 in an
unstable airmass with 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per SPC
mesoanalysis). However, storms have been mostly unorganized thus far
amid very weak deep layer flow (less than 20 knots through the
entire troposphere). Therefore, despite a favorable thermodynamic
profile, weak shear and minimal forcing for ascent should keep the
threat isolated. In addition, any marginal threat should quickly
wane once the boundary layer begins to cool. While some expansion of
watch 538 may be needed across portions of south-central Alabama and
southwest Georgia, no downstream watch is anticipated over this area
due to the marginal and short duration threat.

...Bentley/Edwards.. 07/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7cfhiZmZHRdknSLISyeH8QnhyDwfawWBhFZanRMv3MiyggOlA9gLYs-j1joxDZBQILmQLz36y=
6Czzr6p9qNXpdg_z9w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32318828 32548643 32508500 32488438 32228373 31928343
            31288399 31038596 31248753 31358801 31608826 32318828=20


=3D =3D =3D
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