Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 20:15:33 AWUS01 KWNH 212015 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0781 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 414 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Adj SE CO & OK/TX Panhandles... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 212015Z - 220200Z SUMMARY...Initially slow moving thunderstorms drift southeast into area that has seen recent above average rainfall with lower FFG values. Back-building and training may allow for streaks of 2-3" and possible flash flooding before nightfall (and upscale growth into MCS). DISCUSSION...Mountain circulation thunderstorms are starting to blossom across the Sangre de Cristo and San Juan Mtns, where return upslope flow has been maximized through the afternoon. Not only from the southeast, but also from the east and northeast across SE CO. While weak in the short-term, the moisture available is about 1.5-2 standard deviations above normal with mid-50 to 60s Tds up against the terrain, while 850-700mb moisture is also near .6" per CIRA LPW and near 50F at 700mb. GOES-WV suite depicts a weak diffluent portion of the right entrance of the upper level jet over KS providing some broad scale ascent just downstream of the ridge of the upper-level axis across the Southern CO and North-central NM, expected to expand into NE NM.=20 Initially thunderstorms along the ridges will cycle through a few updrafts with spotty .5-1" totals over the next few hours, under this favorable low and upper level support. Visible imagery shows a broad area of fair weather Cu across NE NM and SE CO, coincident with deepest moisture axis. Filtered insolation and stronger further south into San Miguel county, have allowed for build up of modest instability. MLCAPE values are increasing to over 1000 J/kg with weakening CINH. However, increased mid-level status over SE CO, appears to have limited the instability/strengthen the cap especially over saturated areas of Bent/N Las Animas county where grounds are compromised the worst.=20 By 22z, thunderstorms are likely to expand off the terrain as the surface to 800mb flow increases moisture flux convergence and given capping further north, may be more limited to the farthest southwest portion of Las Animas county and across Colfax to San Miguel county. 12z HREF probability of 1"/hr rapidly increase to over 50% while recent HRRR solutions have been consistent on development placement and timing to have increased confidence.=20 As the 50kt right entrance to the 3H jet slides south-southeast, upper level divergence expands/strengthens and low level wind responds for potential for further upstream development while discrete cells grow to clusters. Total PWats over 1.25" and flux convergence suggests rates up to 1.5-2" toward 00z. With upwind redevelopment, training is possible and spots of 2-3" are possible through early overnight as the clusters grow upscale toward a larger complex across E NM into the TX panhandle. Given recent above average rainfall across NE NM, AHPS shows spots of 200-300% of normal suggesting wetter ground conditions... particularly further north and east. As such, spots of flash flooding are considered possible through late evening. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7zKNwS_jZAZvUb-8W9hSsnXrVKC0R7tJG6MHGLAiLnF3Z4sxOurMx8HvVZ5aoscpH3Y5= Xg41UJxatJdni5tbhGT_byw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37300528 37280456 37140370 36660300 35380290=20 34650337 34490442 34750543 35280605 35890646=20 36640577=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .