Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 13:00:25 ACUS01 KWNS 211300 SWODY1 SPC AC 211258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST STATES...AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and some hail are expected across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley to the Southeast States, while additional severe storms will be possible across the Northeast and High Plains. ....Ozarks/Tennessee Valley/Southeast States... One or more corridors of southeastward-moving severe storms/wind damage may evolve into the afternoon. Somewhat higher severe probabilities could be warranted in the next outlook should confidence increase in a focused corridor of severe wind potential. Early this morning, a prominent MCS is located over northeast Oklahoma into nearby northwest Arkansas/southwest Missouri, with additional strong to occasional severe storms across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley near the effective front. Upper heights will gradually fall across the region, with a continuation of seasonally strong mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow aloft, especially related to the MCS/MCV across Oklahoma and Ozarks. These moderately strong winds will largely overlie the southward-sagging effective front and nearby warm sector, with upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE within the warm sector, which will be unstable/minimally capped by midday outside of ongoing thunderstorm clusters. Additional upscale quasi-linear growth may continue to occur early today with increasing and intensifying storms across the Ozarks/Mid-South, with the possibility that wind damage further increases by midday/early afternoon as the boundary layer steadily warms. A favorable environment will otherwise support potentially severe storms capable of wind damage/some hail across the region into tonight. ....Northeast States... A long-lived quasi-linear convective system/squall line exited the coast overnight and early this morning. While multi-layer cloud cover persists this morning, it seems likely that the boundary layer will have the opportunity to warm/destabilize into the afternoon, with thunderstorm development reoccurring particularly across eastern New York into western New England ahead of the approaching front. As much as 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective shear could support some supercells this afternoon, with the potential for wind damage, some hail, and possibly some tornado risk. ....High Plains... On the periphery of the Southwest Deserts-centered upper ridge, northwesterly flow aloft will exist across the High Plains, with the stronger winds aloft existing as far south as northeast New Mexico. Within the post-frontal regime, low-level upslope trajectories will increase especially across the south-central High Plains, with a surge of moisture across the Raton Mesa vicinity toward interior central New Mexico. MLCAPE across the region is expected to peak generally on the 1000-1250 J/kg range this afternoon. Give the moisture and southern edge of stronger winds aloft, a somewhat focused corridor of severe-storm potential including a few supercells appears to exist across northeast New Mexico late this afternoon. Storms could merge into a forward propagating cluster by early evening across the northeast/east-central New Mexico Plains, with some potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Guyer/Mosier.. 07/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .