Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 08:30:54 AWUS01 KWNH 210830 FFGMPD GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0777 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South and Southeast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 210828Z - 211300Z SUMMARY...A broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing across portions of the Mid-South and the Southeast may continue to foster at least some localized concerns for flash flooding over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a small cluster of locally focused shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern suburbs of Memphis, TN which is part of a somewhat more elongated and broken band of convection seen dropping east-southeast into far northern MS, far northern AL and northern GA. Most of the convection is forming along a rather well-defined instability gradient in conjunction with a west/east axis of stronger moisture convergence associated with a surface trough. MLCAPE values are locally on the order of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and this coupled with PWs of 1.8 to 2 inches has been yielding some impressively high rainfall rates that have reached as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger cells just east of Memphis. Some additional broken areas of convection are expected over the next few hours, and there may be some localized backbuilding of cells that foster some spotty rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches going through dawn. The more concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will likely tend to still be over far southwest TN and perhaps into far northern MS, but there will also be a concern for locally heavy rainfall amounts in a disorganized fashion across far northern AL and northern GA going through dawn. There will be concerns for flash flooding with these additional rains over the next few hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9U96Qwo9kU1Aswhq6he9DtXS_mG0Ug1oTJFn1YE9NjIs8PJaKtLG7AH6k49pIojk3IL7= YKO9xSytm07gABCYl08onXE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MEG...OHX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35448991 35308904 35138778 34978618 34688426=20 34208343 33718345 33628450 33848635 34158862=20 34568987 34999034 35289030=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .