Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 05:58:49

ACUS02 KWNS 210558
SWODY2
SPC AC 210557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEEP
SOUTH...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday across portions of the Deep South and in a separate area
from the lower Missouri Valley into southern Minnesota.

....Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the
Interior West while a broad, large-scale mid-level trough resides
over the eastern CONUS.  Northwesterly mid- to high-level flow will
extend across the north-central states.  In the low levels, a
residual frontal zone will be draped west to east from TX east
through the Gulf Coast states.

....Deep South...
A cluster of showers/thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday
morning across the northern half of MS/AL.  The outflow/cool front
and sea-breeze front will be a focus for diurnal storm development
on Saturday.  A belt of moderate westerly mid-level flow will move
through the base of the larger-scale mid-level trough.  Rich
low-level moisture (dewpoints into the 70s deg F) and strong heating
will result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by early-mid afternoon.
Scattered to numerous storms are possible.  Forecast soundings show
PW around 2 inches which will favor strong to severe gusts with the
more intense wet microbursts.  This activity will likely dissipate
by mid evening.

....MN into the lower MO Valley...
Appreciably strong northwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a
boundary layer during the afternoon featuring steep low- to
mid-level lapse rates.  Models continue to indicate moisture quality
will be relatively limited, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop Saturday afternoon near
a weak wind shift/surface trough.  A few severe gusts and perhaps
marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms.

...Smith.. 07/21/2023

$$

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