Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 04:28:51 AWUS01 KWNH 210428 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-211026- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0776 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1227 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Areas affected...Central/Southern Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 210426Z - 211026Z SUMMARY...Strong MCS activity with heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of the central and southern Plains through the remainder of the night. Scattered instances of flash flooding will be likely. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows a strong and well-organized convective complex with very cold cloud tops advancing southeastward across areas of central to southwest KS and into areas of the OK/TX Panhandles. This activity continues to be focused out ahead of a strong shortwave trough dropping southeastward across the central High Plains while interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled in the vicinity of a southward advancing cold front. MLCAPE values remain on the order of 2000 to 2500 J/kg from the TX Panhandle east through much of northern OK and with PWs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches. The kinematic environment continues to be supportive of organized convection with a combination of multi-cell and supercell convection and a couple of bowing line-segments. Going through the remainder of the night, this strong MCS activity will continue to advance generally off to the southeast, and while it will gradually be encountering some increasing boundary layer CIN, the convection will be strongly supported by enhanced moisture convergence along the aforementioned front as this boundary settles farther south. Some nearby right-entrance region upper jet dynamics will also facilitate at least modest deeper layer ascent. Rainfall rates with of the stronger supercell structures are expected to continue to reach as high as 2+ inches/hour, and the 00Z HREF guidance supports rainfall totals locally as high as 3 to 5+ inches overnight along the general path of the MCS. These totals in part will be driven by areas of cell-merger activity and localized cell-training. Already there are areas of flash flooding ongoing across portions of southeast CO and southwest KS, and additional scattered instances of flash flooding can be expected over the next several hours. This will gradually include areas of southern KS and northern OK downstream of the current activity. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_n_n8DZQwYXYDDzSoYC09JALxKiV73dNMjIfHELPJ9tVWnqlq-rMH5f6lCd-bdyABcBG= iTI9WPZwimkKa-fxyzKWXFU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...ICT...OUN...PUB... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38720266 38680117 38459965 37989778 37379623=20 36679523 35909530 35419644 35469865 35930116=20 36380267 37020383 37970422 38480372=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .