Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1658
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 04:11:20

ACUS11 KWNS 210411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210410=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-210615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...much of southwest Kansas...parts of the
Panhandles...and much of northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 210410Z - 210615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for scattered severe winds and isolated large
hail is forecast to persist tonight from the Oklahoma Panhandle and
southwest Kansas southeastward into north-central Oklahoma. A
replacement watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A mixture of supercells and bowing structures persists
over far western KS where severe gusts have been measured, despite
the rain-cooled surface air mass. Southwest of there, a pair of
supercells is now entering the OK Panhandle, and will likely cross
into TX producing large hail and damaging winds.

Modest midlevel flow on the order of 35 kt exists across the area,
with winds in the lowest 2 km averaging 20 kt out of the east. The
air mass remains moist and unstable, and this directional shear
should aid a continued east/southeastward propagation of these storm
systems.

...Jewell/Edwards.. 07/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-g10YtD1Vg138EubUs7gxVnCBWbnzyJKhZ4KEQSTnPuq65inoGvn0Dg7NHUTv6J7yI9Shh-hb=
gsNMnWtLheYvqaelcQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36760263 36860238 37030193 37350167 37570151 38030124
            38330112 38400061 38159969 37729847 37269715 37019690
            36629687 36259699 35979738 35849796 35819865 35830010
            35870149 35960219 36760263=20


=3D =3D =3D
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