Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1657
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 02:28:49

ACUS11 KWNS 210228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210228=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...far southwest
Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle...far
northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...527...

Valid 210228Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526, 527
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts (up to 75 mph) remain possible as
cold-pool organization continues in southeast Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to grow upscale on southeast
Colorado this evening. A small complex is now moving southeast near
Springfield, CO into along the axis of greatest MLCAPE. While some
MLCIN is developing, temperatures remain in the low 80S F with
dewpoints in the low 70s F. This suggest that MLCIN will not become
substantial in the short term, which is also suggested by RAP
forecast soundings into mid/late evening. Another complex in
east-central Colorado/west-central Kansas also is moving southeast.
This activity is moving into cooler air/outflow and will likely be
more marginally severe as a result. This weaker complex could merge
with activity in southeast Colorado and provide additional
acceleration east/southeast. The primary corridor for severe winds
(up to around 75 mph) will be through parts of the combined
Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma.

...Wendt.. 07/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-IEQ1qKAGSX88Fgx3oGBdLRATTqEnoMxmsYwpG1efpqgyUqHvlFQoStJg9ZjdG5YAxl29pqxg=
0H3rh0F2qoAmGfoA_I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37440333 37590335 37750316 37850257 37790213 37310102
            37109990 37089936 37069894 36989855 36769836 36519841
            36389861 36209902 36109985 36110077 36190164 36470257
            37050315 37440333=20


=3D =3D =3D
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