Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1656
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 02:07:47

ACUS11 KWNS 210207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210207=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...much of central New York and Pennsylvania...as
wellas northwest New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...

Valid 210207Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat persists across mainly central and
northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York. If storms
maintain strength, a new watch could be needed for additional areas
of eastern Pennsylvania and New York.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends from Lake Ontario
southward into northern PA, extending west/southwestward into
western PA and central OH along the cold front. The primary outflow
surge is currently pushing east across the northern half of PA to
the PA/NY border where the line has a more favorable north-south
orientation with respect to the winds aloft.

The air mass remains sufficiently unstable at around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, with the greatest surface theta-e over southeast PA where
dewpoints exceed 68 F. In addition, gradual cooling aloft will
continue tonight as the upper trough nears. Given the level of storm
organization with the line of storms, and 850 mb southwesterlies of
20-30 kt, the threat for damaging gusts is expected to persist into
parts of eastern PA, southern NY and perhaps northwest NJ.

...Jewell.. 07/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-kRsMVGY0fJFH55PBxeXc2cDunsWRkraRAGJHpc6_RCnfJtJ7gETGPdzuGbZ-eYAfFsVEG9ht=
cNBb3x7v0ndR2iBL1I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   43397769 43597686 43507612 43237541 42707487 42097470
            41027473 40157485 40017495 39927509 40017576 40197640
            40427734 40697802 40827809 41077793 41507749 42037729
            42497721 42997728 43247758 43397769=20


=3D =3D =3D
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