Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 21 2023 00:56:48 ACUS01 KWNS 210056 SWODY1 SPC AC 210055 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms associated with large hail, wind damage and possibly a tornado will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains, and in parts of the lower Great Lakes. Severe storms with wind damage may also occur along parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ....Southern and Central Plains... Latest water-vapor imagery shows northwesterly mid-level flow across the central U.S. A couple subtle shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the central Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with these features is providing support for MCS development across eastern Colorado. The MCS will move east-southeastward along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability this evening, affecting southwest Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Dodge City, Kansas has an easterly surface wind, with strongly veering winds with height, resulting in about 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for MCS development this evening. Supercells should be capable of large hail, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. A tornado could also occur. Wind damage will be possible in and near the stronger cells within the MCS, and the wind threat may increase if a line can become organized. ....Lower Great Lakes... The latest water-vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow located across the Northeast. Ahead of the trough, a linear MCS is ongoing within a moderately unstable airmass from Ohio northeastward into western New York. The MCS will track east-southeastward into the central Appalachians this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Pittsburgh has a southerly wind near the surface, with winds gradually veering to the west at about 3 km above ground level. This is resulting in 40-45 knots of 0-6 km shear, which will continue to be favorable for severe storms within the linear MCS. Wind damage will be most likely near and ahead of bowing line segments embedded in the line. A QLCS tornado, and isolated large hail may also occur with any rotating elements in the line. ....Southern Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently located in the southern Appalachians. An MCS is ongoing ahead of the trough in far eastern Georgia and western South Carolina. The MCS will continue to track east-southeastward into southern and central South Carolina this evening. This convective system is located just ahead of a mid-level speed max near 700 mb. The speed max is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings in western South Carolina. This, combined with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range will support a wind-damage threat this evening as the MCS moves toward the coastal areas. ...Broyles.. 07/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .