Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 22:36:16

ACUS11 KWNS 202236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202235 COR
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

Valid 202235Z - 210015Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
continues.

SUMMARY...All severe hazards will remain possible this afternoon
into the evening, particularly for southeast Colorado. The tornado
threat will be maximized along/near a surface boundary from near
Lamar to northeast of Pueblo.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue in eastern Colorado into
southeast Wyoming. The most intense of these storms are in southeast
Colorado where surface heating has been greater. Strong
northwesterly effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
(maximized in southeast Colorado with lesser amounts farther north)
will continue to support supercells capable of severe wind gusts,
large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. A surface
boundary is evident within surface observations and local radar
imagery in southeast Colorado. KPUX VAD profiles show slightly more
enlarged low-level hodographs as a result. The tornado threat this
afternoon will be maximized along/near this boundary. With time,
storm interactions should lead to upscale growth into an MCS, a
consensus scenario in high-resolution guidance. At that time, severe
wind gusts (some exceeding 75 mph) would become the primary threat.

For northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming, the overall threat
will be somewhat mitigated by lesser buoyancy and more stable air
just to the east.

...Wendt.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7-UMWuyF9cxL1iLUu4S47kpOPR4HR7NONoN48XOcc8TQkCzIK_UlkBvm3HN7RRy39CsTzLaFB=
nA_f_QwbebBF0eowAw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37450480 38940506 39970512 41380526 41540455 40730275
            37900213 37250218 37070350 37210427 37450480=20


=3D =3D =3D
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