Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1652
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 21:59:44

ACUS11 KWNS 202159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202159=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...northern into eastern Georgia...western into
southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 202159Z - 210030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms may extend south and east of watch 525, with
severe wind gusts expected. A new watch appears likely.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms extending across northern GA and into
far northeast AL is producing measured severe gusts over 50 kt at
multiple observing sites. Westerly low-level winds will continue to
feed unstable air into the region ahead of this line of storms as it
moves southeastward this evening. Although effective shear is only
on the order of 25-30 kt, similar deep-layer mean wind speeds will
favor a forward-propagating system with strong to severe outflow.
Given the uncapped air mass downstream with mid 70s F dewpoints and
MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, the threat may extend to the coast. As
such, a continued severe risk is anticipated given ample instability
and current organization of this system.

...Jewell.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8EoTzRm2-HEGcrid1iYpl47D1KF86R_Pk4KxR8myyixVWQGOF4Kmf13NZXL7LiQ0gIwjQD8dr=
lMdSCwKTzogG5eZyzI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32638243 33418384 33688435 33888465 34078469 34298438
            34478395 34558354 34218279 33648159 32787979 32578001
            32178055 31788083 31798131 32638243=20


=3D =3D =3D
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