Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1651
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 21:50:13

ACUS11 KWNS 202150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202149=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...northern
Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...

Valid 202149Z - 202345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527
continues.

SUMMARY...All severe hazards will be possible late this afternoon
and evening. Very large hail threat will focus in southwest Kansas
near Dodge City. Tornado threat will focus along a surface boundary
in the combined Panhandles. The primary hazard will eventually be
severe (potentially significant) wind gusts as an MCS organizes and
moves out of southeast Colorado.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing, intense supercell continues across parts of
southwest Kansas just north of Garden City. Hail of 1.75-2.5 inches
has already been reported with this storm and current dual-pol radar
presentation from KDDC would suggest very large hail remains a
potential threat. Furthermore, a tornado has been reported with this
storm as well. This storms and any other that develop nearby are the
greatest short-term severe threat.

Later this evening, convection that is ongoing in eastern Colorado
is expected to grow upscale. Temperatures near 90F and dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s F will support moderate to strong buoyancy
late this afternoon and evening. Combined with strong northwesterly
effective shear, this environment will support potential for an
intense line of storms capable of scattered severe wind gusts (some
of which may exceed 75 mph). Given the linear storm mode expected,
the tornado threat will be somewhat modulated. The greatest threat
for a tornado or two would be along and just north of the surface
boundary into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

...Wendt.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ByIncbBnB-LMD1E-BsIFOIdV4-gB6ce9iHFWUn5zMEZdbpxt3Axp1f67CM1TIL6EwZkdabj9=
8XBhvmA9mS_It44YXI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   36619841 35969900 35699948 35720080 36050165 36400186
            37440197 38170198 38610183 38760140 38740051 37939893
            37149850 36619841=20


=3D =3D =3D
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