Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1650
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 21:02:45

ACUS11 KWNS 202102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202101=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Central/northern IN/OH into far southeast MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...524...

Valid 202101Z - 202230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523, 524
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and hail will continue into
early evening.

DISCUSSION...While a well-organized bowing cluster has moved into
Ontario, somewhat more discrete storms are ongoing along a cold
front into northeast IN and extreme southeast MI. With moderate
buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear (as noted in the 20Z ILN
and PIT soundings) in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough moving
across MI, strong to potentially severe storms will persist into
early evening and perhaps increase in coverage into parts of
northern OH. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to
support a large hail threat with any of the more discrete cells,
with some potential for an increasing damaging wind threat as one or
more upscale growing clusters eventually evolve with time.=20

Farther southwest, prefrontal storms across central IN had shown a
weakening trend after their initial development, but some
strengthening has been noted again over the last 30 minutes. While
large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker compared to areas farther
north/east, a few stronger storms may pose a hail and damaging wind
threat as they approach southeast IN and southwest OH into early
evening.

...Dean.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!83Vc8P3SWwPUa3RnI81GtjfVi3dE4rJItCVLFOzHaezpFSlUasRo898oeO4YVSPvsQ5pjzuYG=
-xh4ykVh6_5KtKeDfE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40438356 39368728 40108737 40528706 41328606 41868510
            42178377 42298186 42188113 41718081 41108119 40658224
            40438356=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.