Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1649
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 20:57:17

ACUS11 KWNS 202057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202056=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western NY...western PA...and far eastern
OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 202056Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds will increase in the next few
hours as an organized MCS overspreads the area from the west. A
watch issuance is likely for parts of the area in the next hour or
so.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KDTX depicts a well-organized
bowing MCS tracking eastward at around 40 kt in Ontario -- where a
recent 63-kt gust was measured. Ahead of the MCS, antecedent diurnal
heating of a relatively moist air mass (generally lower/middle 60s
dewpoints) has contributed to weak/moderate surface-based
instability -- with the greater instability confined to western PA
and eastern OH (see 20Z observed PIT and 19Z BUF soundings). 40-50
kt midlevel winds should support continued convective organization
as it crosses Lake Erie and approaches western NY, eastern OH, and
western PA -- with a risk of severe winds during the next few hours.
While there is some uncertainty on how intense the northern portion
of the line will be given less instability farther north, the
well-established cold pool and favorable deep-layer shear will still
pose a risk of severe outflow winds. A watch will likely be issued
in the next hour or so.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7aOCzHgWJ8qcxuIGiN_PrlZ340PwiZxPv_1bQU1cULoXJNZgLjgV32hlUZvvqtBgqQvQj7wAO=
pdDnUvIZJ_YoFzVm4M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41018093 41438034 41777990 42277963 42717940 43077923
            43357902 43467833 43397673 43197649 42297671 41617709
            41107755 40547849 40197938 40007998 39918060 39968119
            40208158 40518157 40738134 41018093=20


=3D =3D =3D
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