Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1647
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 20 2023 19:36:11

ACUS11 KWNS 201936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201935=20
KSZ000-202030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201935Z - 202030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...KGLD radar data shows an organizing discrete
thunderstorm along a remnant outflow boundary draped across western
Kansas this afternoon -- where filtered diurnal heating of a moist
air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) is contributing to moderate
surface-based instability. While 40-50 kt of effective shear and
modest clockwise low-level hodograph curvature will support
intensification of the ongoing activity into an organized supercell
capable of large hail and severe gusts, current thinking is coverage
of storms may be too limited for a watch, but trends will be
monitored.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9AawnVhnE-y2rmIO2-SFRc-cJuYBwcTthSMrFOIX2u-x2d4Q0SL0ElAckgFB2-IwHP39E6bHL=
LjxGttAP5qFqFVAVbI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38810018 38579969 38179929 37699927 37439952 37340008
            37520086 37730132 38000175 38220196 38740200 39080197
            39250174 39230130 39010066 38810018=20


=3D =3D =3D
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